The role of large-scale climate drivers in coastal evolution

A PhD project with the University of Plymouth
full bleed image: Hurricane Brian hits Porthcawl Colossal waves batter a lighthouse as it suffers hits twice in a week when hurricane Storm Brian lands on the Porthcawl coast of South Wales, UK.

Project background

With sea level rise accelerating and winter storms increasing (Fig. 1), the requirement of coastal managers and scientists to produce accurate predictions of beach evolution is becoming ever more urgent. This PhD project aims to give some further insights into the role of the large-scale climatology (e.g., weather types, position of the jet stream, climate indices) in beach evolution. 
Most beach evolution studies focus on the response of one key coastal state indicator which is normally the intertidal shoreline. However, it is important to acknowledge that (i) changes in the intertidal shoreline position are not necessarily representative of changes in the nearshore sediment budget; and (ii) different shoreline contours will respond at different dominant times. A major challenge is to predict beach evolution and response to future climatic change from a shoreface perspective. This PhD will extend the concept of shoreline response to further offshore, addressing one of the key issues for coastal users and stakeholders: “the effect of potential changes in climate variability into future prediction of beach evolution”.  
The project will involve using novel and multidisciplinary approaches to combine statistical downscaling techniques and numerical modelling in different types of coastlines: exposed cross-shore dominated and sheltered alongshore dominated. Tasks will include application of statistical data mining techniques (see Cagigal et al., 2021), coastal numerical modelling (see Valiente et al., 2020; Davidson, 2021) and the use of field observations for calibration/ validation purposes. 
Figure 1. Coastal damage during storms: b. Newhaven on 9 February 2020 - storm Ciara
Figure 1. Coastal damage in Newhaven during storm Ciara (9 February 2020).

Project aims and methods

The over-arching aim of this PhD project is to investigate the role of atmospheric patterns and variations in wave climate into prediction of beach response. This overarching aim will be covered by the following specific objectives:
  1. Data collation including publicly available morphological observations, open-source model outputs of atmospheric and wave hindcast, and future projections based on the most up-to-date climate change scenarios.  
  2. Definition of weather types and associated sea states affecting the UK coastline.
  3. Process-based numerical modelling in selected study sites.
  4. Investigation of major paths and modes of transport leading to beach erosion/ recovery cycles for the different weather types defined by the large-scale climate drivers. 
  5.  Projection of embayments response and associated uncertainty using statistical relationships between forcing conditions and beach evolution. 
 

Eligibility and candidate requirements

This project is interdisciplinary and collaborative and will involve a combination of data analysis and numerical modelling. Applicants should have a first or upper second-class honours degree in an appropriate physical, engineering or marine/environmental science and preferably a relevant MSc. Quantitative skills such as Python or Matlab, and GIS are essential.
Any successful applicant to this position will be expected to assist in demonstrations and processing sessions related to sidescan and multibeam hydrographic surveys and CTD and ADCP oceanographic surveys. Instruction and guidance will be provided but sufficient background in numeracy to facilitate that training will be assumed.
 

Student training

The multidisciplinary project will provide the successful candidate with training in: (i) big data manipulation; (ii) meteorological, physical oceanography and morphological data analysis; (iii) data science statistical techniques; and (iv) numerical modelling (e.g., Delft3D, XBeach). 
The successful candidate will become an active member of the internationally recognised University of Plymouth Coastal Processes Research Group (CPRG) and will participate in a research placement at the University of Cantabria (Spain). The PhD student will have the opportunity to collaborate with expert scientists at the Met Office and the Geomatics and Ocean Engineering Group (GeoOcean) of University of Cantabria. 
The project will equip the PhD student for a career in coastal and climate research, data science and consultancy.
 

Key recent papers by the supervisory team

Valiente, N.G., Masselink, G., McCarroll, R.J., Scott, T., Conley, D., & King, E. Nearshore sediment pathways and potential sediment budgets in embayed settings over a multi-annual timescale, Marine Geology, 427, 106270 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2020.106270 
Harley, M., Masselink, G., Ruiz de Alegria-Arzaburu, A., Valiente, N.G., & Scott, T. Single Extreme Strong Sequence Can Offset Decades of Shoreline Retreat by Sea-level Rise, Commun Earth Environ 3, 112 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00437-2 
Davidson, M. Forecasting coastal evolution on time-scales of days to decades. Coast. Eng. 168, 103928 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2021.103928 
Cagigal, L., Rueda, A., Anderson, D., Ruggiero P., Merrifield, M., Montano, J., Coco, G. Méndez, F. A multivariate, stochastic, climate-based wave emulator for shoreline change modelling. Ocean Modelling 154, 101695 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2020.101695 
If you wish to discuss this project further informally, please contact the supervisory team.

Supervisory team