Global climate tools being used to predict future temperature rises and rainfall across Asia are significantly overestimating their potential growth and impact, according to new research.
A study published in Nature Communications suggests predictions by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are overestimating future temperature growth by between 3.4% and 11.6%.
Based on revised calculations, an international team of researchers say this could result in the rate of snow cover loss in Asia, notably in the Himalayas, being between 10.5% and 40.2% lower than previously predicted.
As well as the physical effects on the landscape, this, they add, could have significant knock-on effects on both predicted future climate warming and water availability in Asia.
Around half of the world’s population lives in Asia, with environmental scientists and engineers constantly required to estimate the effect of global warming on the hydrological cycle, particularly precipitation in the form of rainfall.
Such estimates are vitally important when it comes to developing both present and future climate change mitigation and water resources management policies.