Alison Nock

Research interests

New research suggests that sea level rise will pose a serious threat to coastal cities due to an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme storm events. In response to future threat, research funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the Environment Agency (EA) and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) in the United Kingdom (UK) is being undertaken to examine coastal flooding.  NERC’S new strategy, entitled “The Next Generation of Science”, aims to provide the scientific expertise to address key environmental science themes including global climate change and natural hazards. This research undertaken in the Coastal Flooding by Extreme Events (CoFEE) project supports NERC’ mission to use numerical modelling and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to assess how flood risk along the Sefton coast (UK) will change in the future due to predicted scenarios of sea level rise and increased frequency of extreme events. The research considers the last 200 years and benefits from a rich data archive and contemporary data sources The project involves partners at the University of Plymouth (UoP), the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (POL), the British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC), the University of Liverpool, (UoL), Edge Hill University (EH), and Sefton Council, (SC).

This research has identified a niche in the GIS flood risk assessment world that will underpin the development of future flood risk applications. An accurate representation of the dynamics of coastal flooding in GIS data models will be developed based on the integration of ensemble-based forecasting systems and flood inundation models. The data models will incorporate the results of X-Beach simulations to study the impact of changing wave climate on drift-oriented shorelines and the ensuing consequences for coastal protection. Simulations of known overtopping events along coastal defences will also be considered in the data model to accurately define future coastal flooding.  Predicted changes to the magnitude and frequency of extreme events predicted by global climate change models will be examined to determine the rate of flood inundation speed, flood risk and damages to urban areas. A decision support system (DSS) tool will be developed to interrogate and visualise the spatial-temporal coastal flood more accurately. Calculating the socio-economic losses to property and infrastructure, within the DSS, will enable flood risk inundation mapping in the most vulnerable environments. The insurance market and emergency management sectors stand to benefit from the outcomes of this research. A bespoke Google FLOOD application will be developed to deliver accurate and up-to-date flood risk maps based on advanced analysis or scenarios to end-users within hours of an extreme event. These Google Earth enhancements in flood data could provide accurate flood risk predictions and mapping guidelines for a global Google FLOOD application.

This research reinforces the need for innovative GIS systems which provide vital lead times in advance of an extreme event to mitigate the impact of extreme weather. Coastal flooding data models should provide greater accuracy and timeliness of response for disaster preparedness. It is hoped that this research will significantly improve flood risk mapping, safeguard coastal communities and advise the UK economy.

Other research
Future work may be focused on applying this research on Coastal Flooding to the Fraser Valley, British Columbia, Canada.